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Wednesday, October 12, 2016

McMullin Now in Statistical Tie with Hillary and Trump in This State

A new poll in Utah, completed after the second debate and the release of the Trump lewdness recording, shows that independent presidential candidate Evan McMullin is in a statistical tie with Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton with each having a quarter of the vote. Utah could become the first state since 1968 to give its electoral college votes to a third party candidate.

This should not be a surprise. Trump finished a distant third in the Utah Republican caucus with only 14% of the vote. Hillary Clinton is not likely to see much of a surge of support in the few weeks leading up to the election. Her husband actually finished in third place in the 1992 election behind both George Bush and Ross Perot. Utah does not suffer fools like the Clintons wisely.

I think McMullin now has to be the front-runner in Utah, especially since he is still unknown to half of the voters. As the election date gets closer, the anti-Trumpers who first backed Johnson (now polling 16%) will move to McMullin who is a better match for Utah values. Leading Utah Republicans, including the governor were among the first in the nation to abandon Trump. Look to more Republicans who were only supporting Trump as an anti-Hillary vote to move to McMullin now that he is seen to be in a better position to win.

Nationwide polls show that voters are negative about both Trump and Hillary. Most people are voting against the candidate they like worse, rather than for the one they like best. Now it looks like at least one state is going to show these unqualified deplorables that they should both lose.

Way to go Utah.

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